Heath's Blog


Some Real Inconvenient Truths

The Real Estate market is near it's bottom, and global warming has started cooling.  But, both truths are inconvenient for mainstream US media.  Real Estate prices have moved into ranges that many investors see as "the bottom", or at least close enough to start buying.  And home owners are still moving from one house to another. 

In many areas where appreciation drove prices to historic highs, sale prices have returned to levels where rents will carry the debt on a property.  Investors from every state are poised with cash, credit, and confidence that their next purchase will be a great, longer term investment.  Even without tax incentives, there are many markets making cents and dollars. (Pardon the pun.)  Home owners are disappointed at their loss of paper equity, but they are excited about "moving up" into a house that was out of their financial reach a year or two ago.  Home owners still have growing families, and with the economy growing more than the "news" reports, many families are moving into larger homes.  Couple that with the "boomer" inherited estates and there is an unreported housing economy that includes people with good credit and stable incomes. 

In other areas of the real estate market, when rent payments are adequate to carry the debt on property, investors buy.  The Internet has made finding rentable properties much, much easier.  Markets with affordable values attract corporations that are looking to operate less expensively and also looking to help their employees find reasonable housing.  As areas attract jobs (and some are), the housing markets in those areas will grow again.  Investors are finding those areas using the Internet. The instructors used to say stay within one hour of your home because that was where most people can gather the best information.  But investors are using the Internet to find good investment markets without regard to the "one hour rule."

As areas lose jobs, investors move in to buy bargains.  In the last REindex report of the "Top Ten States Surfed" (adjusted version), areas like Michigan and Louisiana appeared in the list.  Both of those areas are not being reported as strong investment areas by mainstream media.  But investors who appreciate the availability of economic information on the Internet, are using it to research their own buying decisions.  Low purchase prices or high foreclosure rates in a given area can be indicators of opportunity.

Mainstream media prefers to report the current real estate market negatively because it creates copy.  When the economy is good, people don't need to listen to the news to see how bad things will be tomorrow.  If there isn't any reason to watch the bad news, there isn't ad revenue, and there certainly isn't a need for opinionated reporters. 

As for "global warming", the founder of "The Weather Channel" is considering a legal challenge to Al Gore's eco-vangelizing.  According to one news agency, "The founder of the Weather Channel wants to sue Al Gore for fraud, hoping a legal debate will settle the global-warming debate once and for all."  John Coleman says his side of the global-warming debate is being buried by mainstream media.  Since the facts are not open for discussion, Coleman has suggested that the courts might be needed to provide full disclosure.  For example, if farms are being found as glaciers recede, doesn't that mean the earth was that warm once before?  Of course, it is less empowering to just report news than it is to tell the listener how to hear it and what the news means.

What makes these "real inconvenient truths"?  Positive news is not as lucrative as negative news is.  As the line in "Pretty Woman" goes, "...it's easier to believe the negative stuff."  But most people want to hear the good stuff, and even more are happy that "their neighborhood" isn't that bad.  For now, the investors I am working with are content to have the media limiting their competition for good purchases.   They know that after the election, rates will increase, rentals will be more necessary, anyone who owns rental property could benefit.  (And, the skiers I know are not worried about their season passes.) 

The current reporting is like a new agent doing a CMA for a seller to get the price the seller wants rather than showing the facts.  Reporters are now more correctly called opinion-ators.  But the Internet has given each of us our own encyclopedic reference for all kinds of information.  Smart investors are using true real estate professionals and the Internet to find truly good investments.

Convenient and true information cannot be dismissed for long.

Heath Coker, Associate Broker
Robert Paul Properties
www.CapeGroup.com / capegroup@capegroup.com
508-274-5613  Licensed in MA
Its a beautiful day on Cape Cod!
@CapeGroup  Skype: heath.coker

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James Heath Coker | Create Your Badge


Great points Heath. The media jumps on a band wagon and rides it until horse dies.
Posted by Lisa Lambert, Esq. 1031 Exchange Expert (The Law Offices of Elisabeth A. Lambert) over 12 years ago
LOL, Lisa!  Yeah and sometimes they kill the horse just to make "news".
Posted by Associate Broker Falmouth MA Cape Cod Heath Coker, Heath Coker Robert Paul Properties Falmouth MA (http://www.CapeGroup.com & http://www.REindex.com) over 12 years ago