Heath's Blog


Why We Might Be At The Bottom Of This Real Estate Crunch

I read an article this week about how the median price in the US is rising again. That caused me to look at Barnstable County to see if that is the case here. Here is what I found.

For Barnstable County
Single Family Homes only
Oct 2010 to Dec 2012
Date                 10/10 11/10 12/10 1/11 2/11 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11
Median Price $   350    324    346    358   317  305  332  346   319  320  328   344  331    328     335

For Barnstable County
Single Family Homes only
1999 to 2012
Date               12/99 12/00 12/01 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11
Median Price $ 178    218    248    305    351     398    410    381    390    329     335   341     331

For Barnstable County
All Single Family (Homes, Condos, Land, ...)
1999 to 2012   1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011
Median Price $ 178    218    248    305    351    398   410    381    390    329    336    339    334

The data does not indicate that the median price has begun movin upward yet. So, if you are a buyer and the national median has already begun moving upward, this could be the indicator that the market has bottomed out.  If median price is moving upward nationally, but prices on Cape Cod haven't seen that movement yet, you could be ahead of the curve by buying now.

When you look at the last set of numbers, the last four years show a relatively stable median price. Median price does not usually stay as static as this data says it has.  The years from 1999 to 2005 show an increased median from $178K to $410K. For the years from 2008 to 2011 the data shows an almost flat median price.

Are we at the bottom? There is a lot of pent up demand. Inventory is lower than it has been since 2005. The national median is reported to be increasing. We may be at the bottom.



(Referenced data is compiled from Cape and Islands MLS. The Cape Cod and Islands MLS does not guarantee or is not in anyway responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Cape Cod and Islands MLS may not reflect all real estate activities in the market. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.)



Heath Coker, Associate Broker
Robert Paul Properties
www.CapeGroup.com / capegroup@capegroup.com
508-274-5613  Licensed in MA
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i would be carefull there are so many bank owned properties or preforeclosures that we are not at the bottom,  I do not htink this will hit for 18months to 2 years.  Some area might pull out sooner, but look at your report of people that have not paid their morgtages for last 90 days.... it will shock you

Posted by Ken's Home Team LLC. | 360.609.0226 | Portland, OR & Vancouver, WA Real Estate Team, - SOLD IS OUR FAVORITE 4 LETTER WORD - (Ken's Home Team LLC.) about 9 years ago

There is a lot that could change in the next 18 months.  What if we actually start getting people back to work? Then many of those who are behind will be able to get back on track.

Posted by Associate Broker Falmouth MA Cape Cod Heath Coker, Heath Coker Robert Paul Properties Falmouth MA (http://www.CapeGroup.com & http://www.REindex.com) about 9 years ago

Of course we will all agree that the answer to your question varies by region.

Certainly in California the primary concern is that in many markets 60% of the inventory below $350,000 is short sale. This has clogged the market. By the way - only about 20% of them close.

That is a HUGE problem to overcome before we return to a free market economy in the housing sector.

Posted by Andrew Warburton (G7 Realty) about 9 years ago

CA is an area that will have more to deal with. Other parts of the country are not in the same shape.

Posted by Associate Broker Falmouth MA Cape Cod Heath Coker, Heath Coker Robert Paul Properties Falmouth MA (http://www.CapeGroup.com & http://www.REindex.com) about 9 years ago